11 Year financial forecast

The forecast below is based on the City’s Town Hall presentations. The FYE 6/30/27 revenue and expense figures, as well as the projected July 1, 2026 General Fund starting balance, are from the recent budget presentation made at the May 12, 2026 City Council meeting.

The model assumes Measure PF passes. It also includes a $1.3 million additional payment toward pension debt and funds the identified infrastructure needs, which are reflected in the “Transfers Out (CIP)” line near the bottom of the spreadsheet.

The escalation factors used in the model are based on historical compound annual growth rates. 

The Reserve Policy Requirement is calculated at 50% of expenditures. This reflects the City’s revenue structure, as property taxes are the primary source of funding and the first significant property tax payment is not received until December.

As a result, the City must maintain sufficient reserves to fund approximately six months of operating expenses to ensure continuity of essential services and meet financial obligations before major revenues are received. The reserve requirement is intended to provide liquidity, maintain financial stability, and protect against unexpected revenue shortfalls or unforeseen expenditures.

You will also notice there is a projected surplus in the FYE 6/30/37 forecast. This is primarily because the current Capital Improvement Program (CIP) forecast only extends ten years and does not incorporate inflation adjustments or unidentified infrastructure needs beyond that period.

It is reasonable to expect that future project costs will increase over time due to inflation, and that additional unforeseen capital projects will arise. As a result, the projected surplus should not be interpreted as excess available funds, but rather as a limitation of the current long term forecast assumptions.

The projections are based solely on information and identified projects presented to date. Any future updates to infrastructure requirements, inflation assumptions, or additional capital needs would likely reduce the projected surplus.